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Understanding Toronto's Housing Affordability in 2024

In the bustling city of Toronto, where the skyline is constantly reshaped by new developments, the concept of housing affordability has long been a topic of keen interest and debate. Recent reports suggest that housing affordability has improved in 80% of markets across Canada, but what does this really mean for potential homebuyers in Toronto?

Toronto's Market at a Glance
As of mid-2024, various sources, including the National Bank of Canada's latest quarterly snapshot, indicate a slight improvement in affordability. For example, seasonally adjusted home prices have seen a modest increase of 0.4% from the previous quarter. More notably, the benchmark mortgage rate for a five-year term fell by 11 basis points, and median household income rose by 1.2%, all contributing to a more accessible market.
In the Greater Toronto Area, these changes have positioned the city just behind Hamilton in terms of improved affordability. Yet, despite these positive statistics, many residents still feel the pinch when it comes to purchasing a home.

The Reality Behind the Numbers
Housing affordability calculators, while useful, can sometimes paint an overly optimistic picture. These tools often take the average price of a single-family home—currently about $1.2 million in Toronto—and factor in the required income, mortgage costs, and down payment. However, in the most desirable neighborhoods, this average price may only fetch a townhouse or a semi-detached home, not the detached properties many aspire to own.

For condos, the average price is reported at around $702,000, with a corresponding household income requirement of $168,000 annually. While this may seem daunting, it's worth noting that there are options available for significantly less, especially for first-time buyers targeting one-bedroom units.

Affordability vs. Actual Affordability
One critical aspect to understand about these calculators is their methodology. The benchmark mortgage rate typically assumes a 25-year amortization period at a five-year fixed rate, and the income calculations presume that a household can devote 32% of its pre-tax income to mortgage payments. These figures do not necessarily align with everyone's reality, particularly single-income households or those without a significant down payment saved up.

Looking Forward
As we approach the fall of 2024, the Toronto real estate market is likely to continue its trend of gradual improvement in terms of affordability. However, any upcoming changes in interest rates or economic conditions could potentially alter this trajectory.
It's important for potential buyers and current homeowners to keep a close eye on these developments. Understanding the underlying factors that influence these affordability metrics can provide a clearer picture of what to expect and how best to plan for future real estate investments or purchases.