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How Changes in Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Impact Affordability in Toronto

The landscape of real estate in Toronto has seen significant changes, especially in recent months as mortgage rates have declined and home prices have adjusted. For potential homeowners, understanding these shifts is crucial in determining the feasibility of purchasing a property in one of Canada's most vibrant and expensive markets.

The Current State of the Toronto Real Estate Market
From July through August, there was a noticeable decline in both mortgage rates and property prices. This trend continued into September, indicating a potential shift in the market dynamics. According to monthly analyses by Ratehub.ca, the cost to purchase a property in August was lower than in July. This decrease is largely attributed to the significant drop in rates, which has continued into September.

Breaking Down the Numbers
In July 2024, the average sale price in the Greater Toronto Area was approximately $1,097,300. By August, this price had decreased to just over $1,000,080, a difference of about $15,000. Correspondingly, the average mortgage rate in July was around 5.29% with a stress test rate of 7.29%, which required an average household income of just under $209,000 to afford a home. In August, this required income decreased to just over $204,000. This roughly $5,000 drop in the income needed highlights a slight improvement in affordability due to the lowered costs.

Long-term Trends and What This Means for Buyers
While the decrease in required income and home prices may seem like a positive development, it's important to recognize that the income needed only dropped about $5,000 despite a $15,000 to $20,000 reduction in home prices. This ratio indicates that while prices may be falling, the real impact on affordability might be less significant than it appears.

Comparisons Across Canada
Looking across Canada, Toronto led with the most significant monthly savings in required household income to afford a home. However, it's interesting to note that other major markets like Vancouver and Hamilton saw minimal changes in their average home prices and the corresponding income needed. For instance, Vancouver remained nearly flat, with just about a $2,000 change in price, while Hamilton's average home price of around $840,000 remained steady.

The Future of Toronto's Real Estate Market
As we approach the end of 2024, it will be intriguing to see how further changes in mortgage policies and market conditions affect home affordability. With new announcements related to mortgage affordability still to trickle through the market, potential buyers should stay informed and perhaps optimistic about future opportunities to enter the market.


For those considering buying a property in Toronto or elsewhere in Canada, the recent trends offer a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. While the slight increase in affordability might seem promising, it's crucial to keep an eye on the broader economic factors and policy changes that will continue to shape the market. Understanding these dynamics can significantly aid in making informed decisions in the ever-evolving landscape of real estate.